ABSTRACT
Dagestan lies on the main Russian transport link to the Transcaucasus and the only route through which petroleum from Azerbaijan can be transported to the West. The loss of Dagestan would therefore ensure that the main oil route would have to be constructed through Georgia to Ceyhan in Turkey. Dagestan was established as a Soviet republic on 20 January 1921 and declared its sovereignty in May 1991. It is strongly Islamic in character and is situated in a volatile region. Throughout the period of sovereignty there has been rising ethnic tension, with open clashes occurring in 1993. Should one group in this ethnic mosaic gain ascendency, there could be a disastrous domino effect. There are also potential problems with radical Muslim groups, which receive strong support from Chechnya. Furthermore, as a result of petroleum, there are strong Western interests in the region and Russian relations with the Islamic world may be at stake.
