ABSTRACT
Identifying water main breakage patterns over time is an effective and inexpensive way to measure the structural deterioration of a water distribution system. Several models are available to analyse and forecast pipe breakage. WARP is a prototype decision support application that brings together the most promising models. Currently, it consists of three modules: (a) analysis of water main breakage patterns, (b) short-term operational forecasting and (c) long-term renewal planning. A fourth module to prioritise the renewal of individual pipes is underway. The analysis distinguishes between background ageing, time-dependent variables (temperature, soil moisture) and operational factors (pipe replacement rate, cathodic protection) affecting pipe breakage rates. The short-term forecast uses Fourier analysis to forecast the values of the time-dependent variables and subsequently uses these values to forecast pipe breakage. The long-term planning uses the background ageing rate, which is clean of the “noisy” time-dependent effects. The user can examine and compare several options and strategies and their budgetary implications.
